In this TIME essay, Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis examine how rising tensions, strategic rivalry, and military miscalculation could draw the United States and China into a war neither nation intends.
A Growing Strategic Rivalry
The authors survey the expanding disputes between Washington and Beijing, including the South China Sea, Taiwan, trade, cyber operations, intellectual property, human rights, Hong Kong, 5G networks, and the geopolitical consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Risk of Miscalculation
Ackerman and Stavridis identify the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait as likely flashpoints. Close encounters between ships and aircraft, combined with nationalism and domestic political pressure, could turn a limited incident into a broader conventional conflict.
From Conventional War to Nuclear Escalation
The essay warns that once weapons are fired and lives are lost, escalation becomes difficult to control. Cyberattacks, carrier deployments, larger military strikes, and even tactical nuclear weapons could follow as each side responds to the other.
Preventing an Unimaginable War
Drawing on the history of the First World War and the Cold War, the authors argue that the greatest danger may be a failure of imagination. Avoiding conflict will require a coordinated national strategy using diplomacy, economic policy, military deterrence, communications, and cultural influence.
Read the Original Essay
Read “How the U.S. Could Sleepwalk into a War with China” at TIME →